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The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom

July 24, 2012     Skeptics and devotees of technical analysis took notice last week when Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Societe Generale, warned the S&P 500 was “on...

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Anticipating the Ultimate Death Cross

July 24, 2012     Foreword from dshort: In this commentary, Georg Vrba focuses on a less commonly appreciated aspect of moving average signals. We normally focus on the point of crossover, which is...

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Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market

August 20,2012     In my article "The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom" I showed that the spread between the 50-month moving average (MA) and the 200-month MA of the S&P will form a...

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Is the Next Great Bull Market Already Here?

August 14, 2012     In my article Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market I showed that when the spread between the 50- and 200-month moving average of the S&P forms a trough, it identifies...

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Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond

August 20, 2012     In my recent articles I presented evidence in support of a possible major bull market which may have commenced in 2009. Here I show that another indicator, this time based on a...

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Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update July 2014

July 7, 2014   About two years ago evidence was presented that a major bull market may have commenced in 2009. Additionally, a statistical analysis of the historic data of the S&P Composite...

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Is the Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond

Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...

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Is the Stock Market Overvalued? — Update Dec-2015 — Estimating Returns to...

Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...

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The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom

July 24, 2012     Skeptics and devotees of technical analysis took notice last week when Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Societe Generale, warned the S&P 500 was “on...

View Article


Anticipating the Ultimate Death Cross

July 24, 2012     Foreword from dshort: In this commentary, Georg Vrba focuses on a less commonly appreciated aspect of moving average signals. We normally focus on the point of crossover, which is...

View Article

Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market

August 20,2012     In my article "The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom" I showed that the spread between the 50-month moving average (MA) and the 200-month MA of the S&P will form a...

View Article

Is the Next Great Bull Market Already Here?

August 14, 2012     In my article Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market I showed that when the spread between the 50- and 200-month moving average of the S&P forms a trough, it identifies...

View Article

Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond

August 20, 2012     In my recent articles I presented evidence in support of a possible major bull market which may have commenced in 2009. Here I show that another indicator, this time based on a...

View Article


Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update July 2014

July 7, 2014   About two years ago evidence was presented that a major bull market may have commenced in 2009. Additionally, a statistical analysis of the historic data of the S&P Composite...

View Article

Is the Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond

Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...

View Article


Is the Stock Market Overvalued? — Update Dec-2015 — Estimating Returns to...

Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...

View Article

Estimating 10-Year Forward Returns For Stocks With The Shiller CAPE Ratio And...

The average of S&P 500 for Dec-2019 was 3166; that is 852 (i.e. 27% of 3166) above the Jan-2020 level of the long-term trend line. The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is...

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The Stock Market Is Overpriced, Expect Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns And...

The average of S&P 500 for December 2021 was 4675 (previous month 4670). This is 2155 points higher than the long-term trend value of 2520. The current percentage difference of S&P 500 level...

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The iM-Multi-Model Market Timer – Not Your Daddy’s Old Moving Average...

Reliance on a single market timer is risky. The risk can be reduced by a multi-model market timer whose many components use different and uncorrelated financial and economic data. This model seeks to...

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Expect Further Losses For Stocks And Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns: Update...

The average of S&P 500 for May 2022 was 4,040 (14% down from December 2021 average) and is still 1,469 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2,571. For the S&P 500 to...

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