The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom
July 24, 2012 Skeptics and devotees of technical analysis took notice last week when Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Societe Generale, warned the S&P 500 was “on...
View ArticleAnticipating the Ultimate Death Cross
July 24, 2012 Foreword from dshort: In this commentary, Georg Vrba focuses on a less commonly appreciated aspect of moving average signals. We normally focus on the point of crossover, which is...
View ArticleGet Ready for the Next Great Bull Market
August 20,2012 In my article "The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom" I showed that the spread between the 50-month moving average (MA) and the 200-month MA of the S&P will form a...
View ArticleIs the Next Great Bull Market Already Here?
August 14, 2012 In my article Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market I showed that when the spread between the 50- and 200-month moving average of the S&P forms a trough, it identifies...
View ArticleEstimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond
August 20, 2012 In my recent articles I presented evidence in support of a possible major bull market which may have commenced in 2009. Here I show that another indicator, this time based on a...
View ArticleEstimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update July 2014
July 7, 2014 About two years ago evidence was presented that a major bull market may have commenced in 2009. Additionally, a statistical analysis of the historic data of the S&P Composite...
View ArticleIs the Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond
Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...
View ArticleIs the Stock Market Overvalued? — Update Dec-2015 — Estimating Returns to...
Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...
View ArticleThe Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom
July 24, 2012 Skeptics and devotees of technical analysis took notice last week when Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Societe Generale, warned the S&P 500 was “on...
View ArticleAnticipating the Ultimate Death Cross
July 24, 2012 Foreword from dshort: In this commentary, Georg Vrba focuses on a less commonly appreciated aspect of moving average signals. We normally focus on the point of crossover, which is...
View ArticleGet Ready for the Next Great Bull Market
August 20,2012 In my article "The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom" I showed that the spread between the 50-month moving average (MA) and the 200-month MA of the S&P will form a...
View ArticleIs the Next Great Bull Market Already Here?
August 14, 2012 In my article Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market I showed that when the spread between the 50- and 200-month moving average of the S&P forms a trough, it identifies...
View ArticleEstimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond
August 20, 2012 In my recent articles I presented evidence in support of a possible major bull market which may have commenced in 2009. Here I show that another indicator, this time based on a...
View ArticleEstimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update July 2014
July 7, 2014 About two years ago evidence was presented that a major bull market may have commenced in 2009. Additionally, a statistical analysis of the historic data of the S&P Composite...
View ArticleIs the Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond
Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...
View ArticleIs the Stock Market Overvalued? — Update Dec-2015 — Estimating Returns to...
Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued. The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years. Analysts’ long-term forecasts...
View ArticleEstimating 10-Year Forward Returns For Stocks With The Shiller CAPE Ratio And...
The average of S&P 500 for Dec-2019 was 3166; that is 852 (i.e. 27% of 3166) above the Jan-2020 level of the long-term trend line. The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is...
View ArticleThe Stock Market Is Overpriced, Expect Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns And...
The average of S&P 500 for December 2021 was 4675 (previous month 4670). This is 2155 points higher than the long-term trend value of 2520. The current percentage difference of S&P 500 level...
View ArticleThe iM-Multi-Model Market Timer – Not Your Daddy’s Old Moving Average...
Reliance on a single market timer is risky. The risk can be reduced by a multi-model market timer whose many components use different and uncorrelated financial and economic data. This model seeks to...
View ArticleExpect Further Losses For Stocks And Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns: Update...
The average of S&P 500 for May 2022 was 4,040 (14% down from December 2021 average) and is still 1,469 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2,571. For the S&P 500 to...
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